Labour Force Statistics Q1-Q3 2017 Vol 1
Nigeria economic growth has been decelerating since Q2 2014 culminating in an economic recession in Q2 2016. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country gross domestic product (GDP).
The economic recession was technically over in Q2 2017. However, several economic activities are still contracting or recovering sub optimally.
An economic recession is consistent with an increase in unemployment as jobs are lost and new jobs creation is stalled.
A return to economic growth provides an impetus to employment. However, employment growth may lag, and unemployment rates worsen especially at the end of a recession and for many months after.
The unemployment rate, induced by a recession, typically peaks about 15-18 months after the beginning of a recession or 4-8 months after the end of a recession before it returns to its pre- recession trend. This, in the case of Nigeria will be a peak in Q4 2017 which means we will only expect unemployment to return to its normal trend in 2018. The length of the lag depends on how deep and long the recession was. It also depends on how stable and fast the recovery is as well as on the economic sectors diving the recovery (labor or capital/technology intensive).
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics